r/OnePieceTC • u/CubeoHS • May 12 '22

Megathread 8th Anniversary Sugo-Fest Megathread

8th Anniversary Sugo

  • May 11 - June 18

  • Parts 2/3/4/5 begin on 12/13/14/15

  • 15% Legend Rate

  • The new Luffy, Yamato/Ace, and Kaido are Super Sugo Exclusive

  • The new Boa/Nami/Robin is limited to "Memorable moments of OPTC"

Part 1 Structure:

  • Multi 1, 7, 9, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17, 19, 21, 22, 24, 26, 27, 29: Guaranteed Rate-Boosted
  • Multi 2, 3, 4, 13, 23, 28: Legend
  • Multi 5: New Character
  • Multi 6, 10, 15, 25: Rated Up Legend
  • Multi 8, 18: All posters 50% chance to be a Legend
  • Multi 20: Super Sugo Exclusive Legend
  • Multi 30: New Super Sugo Exclusive Legend

Parts 2/3/4/5 Structure:

  • Multi 1, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 23, 25, 26, 27, 29: Rate-Boosted or Legend
  • Multi 2, 3, 13, 16, 24, 28: Legend
  • Multi 5, 10: Limited Legend
  • Multi 8, 20: Super Limited Legend
  • Multi 30: guaranteed Luffy/Yama & Ace/Kaido/Boa & Nami & Robin on parts 2/3/4/5 respectively

Post Your Pulls here and Good Luck!!

77 Upvotes

99% Upvoted

288 comments sorted by

View all comments

145

u/FateOfMuffins Doktah Carrot Muffins May 12 '22 edited May 12 '22

I will be finalizing my numbers because Bandai gave us a surprise...

The rates are BETTER than I expected! Go ham

Rates

  • Thank you Bandai for the very transparent and flat rates

  • Rated Up Legends @ 0.125% each (Anni Legends included, 0.500% combined, this is expected)

  • Non Rated Up Legends @ 0.089% each

  • Rated Up Regular RRs @ 1.007% each

  • For Guaranteed Rated Up steps, the +1 has 3% for the Anni Legends combined!

  • For Guaranteed Legend steps, the +1 has 3.333% for the Anni Legends combined

  • For multi 5, the +1 is a 15% split between the 4 Anni Legends

  • For Guaranteed Rated Up Legend, the +1 has a 20% for the Anni Legends combined (WAY higher than Super Limited Pool!)

  • For multi 8/18, each poster has 1.667% for Anni Legends combined

  • For multi 20, the +1 has a 29.67% chance for the Anni Legends combined (they have higher individual rates than the other Super Sugos)

  • For multi 30, the +1 has 33.333% each for the 3 Anni Super Sugos (waifus not included)

Normalized Rates

  • Key steps are multi 5/6/8/10/15/18/20/25/30
  • Part 1 costs 414 gems on average for 1 Anni Legend (for comparison NY costed 664 - 698 gems for RWB and Strawhats)
  • Parts 2-5 costs 602.5 gems on average for 1 Anni Legend
  • The idea is that Part 1 is an Anniversary Structure banner but Parts 2-5 are glorified regular debut banners
  • Guaranteed Rated Up Unit steps are actual steps unlike the Guaranteed Rated Up or Legend steps in parts 2-5 which don't mean anything. They are almost as good as the Guaranteed Legend steps (3% vs 3.333%).
  • Guaranteed Rated Up Legend steps have much higher rates for the Anni Legends than the Super Limited Pool steps in parts 2-5.

Basic Pulling Strategy

  • This is a strategy for players who are either pulling for multiple Anni Legends or do not care which Anni Legend they get. If you REALLY REALLY want a very SPECIFIC Anni Legend, then go pull on their part.
  • If you plan on pulling in multiple parts, then 100% you want to pull in part 1 FIRST.
  • This does NOT factor in how good the pools are for each individual person - make your own judgement on that.
  • Each column # on the chart represents the next multi you are doing (i.e. if you just did multi 14 and will be doing 15 next, you should look at column #15 in the chart)
  • Obviously green means continue pulling in part 1 while yellow means swap. You want to swap when the average cost of pulling new units in part 1 exceeds 602.5 gems, which is the average cost of a specific debut in parts 2-5.
  • This primarily deals with pulling the FIRST copy of the Legend - make your own judgement on when you want to swap if you want dupes. For ex, say you pulled all 3 super sugos and are missing the waifus and you just finished multi 29. The chart recommends you to swap... but you probably wanna do multi 30 regardless. Or for example, you pulled some units and now you are at a cell in the chart that is numbered 620 gems. Yes, it is higher than 602.5, but not majorly so - if you don't mind getting dupes of Anni Legends then you may want to continue on part 1 despite 620 > 602.5

  • FAQ - As another example, suppose you are missing only 1 Anni Super Legend and you just finished multi 19. And suppose you do not care for dupes, just want 1 of each. Yes, the chart says you should swap, BUT you'd probably want to do multi 20 FIRST before swapping because it's such a big step. The chart would unfortunately be much too complicated if I started factoring in everything, so this is as best as I can get it.

  • TLDR - Pull in Part 1 until you get 2/4 Anni Legends, then consult the chart

Edit: For those of you who are curious on how "shafted" you are - you "expect" to pull 4.66 debut Legends (including steps) in 1500 gems in part 1. That is "average luck"

Here's a more detailed graph on how shafted you were in 30 multis

Cumulative distribution

23

u/NicoRobin007 May 12 '22

Just wanted to say thank you for all your work putting all the rates and explanations the past few days. I was really torn between just going all in on Y/A's part or doing part 1. Your posts convinced me to pull on part 1. I was below par on average luck, but I made out okay and ended up with the unit I wanted and a little extra I wouldn't have gotten on part 3. Thanks again!

6

u/kaonohiokala Unpromising Rookie May 12 '22 edited May 12 '22

Thanks for the post. Here's a breakdown comparing the boosted to non-boosted legends.Also, comparing to the last celebration banner with all legends available, the rate of a new legend is equivalent to that of all other boosted legends, which is positive and negative. I'd def lean positive because here there are twice as many new units (and they're just better/rarer).

Here are the base rates for each legend on Part 1:

  • Boosted legend: 0.125%
  • Non-boosted legend: 0.089%

11th poster on a guaranteed rate boosted step (Multi 1, 7, 9, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17, 19, 21, 22, 24, 26, 27, 29):

  • Boosted legend: 0.75%

11th poster on a guaranteed legend step (Multi 2, 3, 4, 13, 23, 28):

  • Boosted legend: 0.834%
  • Non-boosted legend: 0.591%

11th poster on the guaranteed new character step (Multi 5):

  • New legend: 3.75%

11th poster on a guaranteed boosted legend step (Multi 6, 10, 15, 25):

  • Boosted legend: 5%

All posters on a 50% legend rate step (Multi 8, 18):

  • Boosted legend: 0.416%
  • Non-boosted legend: 0.295%

11th poster on the guaranteed super sugo legend step (Multi 20):

  • New legend: 9.890%
  • Non-boosted legend: 8.791%

11th poster on the guaranteed new super sugo legend step (Multi 30):

  • New legend (excluding waifu unit): 33.334%

---

As for Parts 2-5, here are their rates assuming the usual flat rates:

  • Base rate: 0.5% each legend
  • 11th poster on a legend or rate-boosted step (Multi 1, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 23, 25, 26, 27, 29): 0.5% each legend
  • 11th poster on a guaranteed legend step (Multi 2, 3, 13, 16, 24, 28): 3.333% each legend
  • 11th poster on a guaranteed limited legend step (Multi 5, 10): 6.667% each legend
  • 11th poster on a guaranteed limited legend step (Multi 8, 20): 12.5% each legend
  • Then of course once you hit Multi 30, you'll have 100% rate for the featured new legend on the 11th poster.

6

u/[deleted] May 12 '22

Thank you so much, this Sugo has been great so far and I recommend Part 1 to start with for everyone as well now without any worries.

9

u/A_FluteBoy Im no longer new. Just lazy May 12 '22

All these great rates and no new legends for me in my 8 multis. Guess I need to do one more to hit that 14 extra gems 🙃 haha.

Thanks for the stats, we appreciate it :)

4

u/xSuzuya I am the 2nd trumpet, the King of Salt May 12 '22

You're definitely not alone in that aspect. But somebody might get a new Anni-Legend with their 1st multi, while somebody else might need 15 multis. That would still make an average of 400 gems spent between these two players.

That being said, I hope you get lucky with your next multi. We're all in this together

2

u/Youjair Zehahaha May 12 '22

Thanks for your work! Always useful.

I got the new 3 Super Legends in 25 pulls. Now I'm thinking about doing 5 more for dupes and a chance for waifus, or waiting until part 5...

2

u/[deleted] May 12 '22

always gotta look up muffins analysis before pulling, thank you for that <3

1

u/ExxodKing May 12 '22 edited May 12 '22

Looks like I have to do Part 5... feelsbadman.

https://imgur.com/a/UJMfxwq

Might do part 1 anyway.

(This is assuming I do only 10 pulls; might be able to squeeze in 10 more, idk)

1

u/Aomirai May 12 '22

Hey Fate, thanks for all the work you do as always.
I was just wondering if you think there's any reasons to continue past Multi 30 on Part 1?

I'm missing 1 Super and Waifu currently and likely won't be able to go crazy deep on 2 more parts and whilst the individual rates suck, the value of Part 1 for me is pretty significant in terms of good dupes overall.

I'm assuming limited pools steps however, probably outweigh this overall, even if you are only chasing 1 legend on say Part 5 for example?

4

u/FateOfMuffins Doktah Carrot Muffins May 12 '22

No, absolutely no value in going past 30.

The only reason why we pull on part 1 is because of the steps. Even including the dupes, part 1 would only have 0.5% rates going forward while parts 2-5 will have higher rates due to steps.

Say you have 500 more gems. You will have higher odds of pulling both the Super and Waifu you're missing on their individual banners than the Super, Waifu and dupes on part 1 continuing past 30.

1

u/Aomirai May 12 '22

Ah ok, thanks. I'll wait it out then.

I do wonder if it will ever be more effective to pull past 30 on part 1 though, especially if also chasing dupes. Like we're already at a 1.034% for dupe-able (Final Tap/Tandem) limited legends on part 1 compared to the 1.5% selected on parts 2-4.

And that's ignoring all the TM legends and old LLB-revamp legends also available on part 1.

I just wonder what next year's anniversary might look like in that regard, especially with potentially double the TM legends, a handful more Super legends and LLB-revamp legends, and if they keep spreading the high value Super legends out really thinly across later parts.

2

u/FateOfMuffins Doktah Carrot Muffins May 12 '22

Still not worth. Steps are where half the value comes from in OPTC gacha.

You see the normalized rates graph? Where part 1 rates are like almost double that of parts 2-5? That's purely due to steps, because base rates are identical. The steps literally double the rates.

1

u/Aomirai May 12 '22

Ah yep, gotcha. Thanks.
Yeah that normalized rates graph really helps.

1

u/forestforest Keep on rockin' on a free world May 12 '22

Thanks for the math (as always).
After this reading, i decided to further go on the banner (and my misfortune trasformed giving 3/4 anni legend).
I'll try some more multi on part 2 for Luffy.
Once again, thanks. :D

1

u/kiwizm May 12 '22

your work is always much appreciated BUT honestly, what's your field of work ? how can you have so much free time to mentor us poor mortals? (or do you simply have no kid ? lol)

1

u/AshenHunter Promising Rookie May 12 '22

So far im in the 2.2% top shafted rate. Im on pull 25 and out of gems and not willing to spend more money. Hopefully over the course of the month ill get enough gems to complete the sugo

1

u/Content_Shopping_939 Promising Rookie May 13 '22

How good is this strat if I absolutely despise the idea of getting luffy or the waifus? Like i just want kaido and yace but would hate my life if i got anyone of the other two. So i believe pulling on part 3 and 4 individually is best for me?

1

u/FateOfMuffins Doktah Carrot Muffins May 13 '22

Look at the row labeled "Missing 2 Supers"

1

u/Dmgpersecond 800 633 388 May 13 '22

missing new luffy and lt kid from the super sugo pool, new waifu, 4 of the rate boosted legends, and a handful of tm legends. pulled 20 times on part 1 already. should I switch part? or stay?

1

u/FateOfMuffins Doktah Carrot Muffins May 13 '22

Read "Missing 1 Super and Waifu" row, column 21 - 652 is not that much higher than 602.5 so you can stay in part 1 if you are comfortable with dupes