Merry Christmas, r/BoxOffice!
Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.
We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of these films. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.
So let's meet the two films for the week and analyze each film's pros and cons.
Before this, we'd like to note that last week, we mistook Presence as a January 17 opener, and we made predictions for the film, when it actually comes out January 24. The predictions will stand regardless.
Flight Risk
The film is directed by Mel Gibson (The Man Without a Face, Braveheart, The Passion of the Christ, Apocalypto and Hacksaw Ridge) and written by Jared Rosenberg, and stars Mark Wahlberg, Topher Grace, and Michelle Dockery. A U.S. Marshall escorts a government witness to trial after he is accused of getting involved with a mob boss, only to discover that the pilot who is transporting them is also a hitman that had been sent to assassinate the informant. After they subdue him, they’re forced to fly together after discovering that there are others attempting to eliminate them.
Inheritance
The film is directed by Neil Burger (The Illusionist, Limitless, Divergent), from a screenplay he co-wrote with Olen Steinhauer, and stars Phoebe Dyvenor and Rhys Ifans. In the film, a young woman is drawn into an international conspiracy after discovering her father is a spy.
Now that you met this week's new releases, let's look at some pros and cons.
PROS
An action thriller is always something that dads across America will want to watch, and Flight Risk might deliver on that. Even with his controversies and scandals, Gibson as director has delivered critical and commercial hits in the likes of Braveheart, The Passion of the Christ, Apocalypto and Hacksaw Ridge. Perhaps South Park was right?
Fans of espionage could flock to Inheritance. Phoebe Dyvenor has earned worldwide recognition for her main role in Netflix's Bridgerton.
CONS
Even though Gibson has directed fantastic films, the trailer for Flight Risk leaves a lot to be desired. While Mark Wahlberg is a big name, his name is not a sign that a film will succeed; his past two films made just $32 million and $21 million. Not to mention that the film has been delayed from October 2024, raising questions over the film's prospects.
IFC Films has been struggling as a distributor; last year's Late Night with the Devil made $10 million domestically, and it's their highest grossing film in over 10 years. Only 4 films earned more than $10 million. And while Dyvenor has her fans, is that enough to show she has box office pull? Just because you star in a streaming hit show doesn't mean you're a movie star. Ask the Stranger Things cast about that.
And here's the past results.
| Movie |
Release Date |
Distributor |
Domestic Debut |
Domestic Total |
Worldwide Total |
| Nosferatu |
December 25 |
Focus Features |
$11,263,636 (3-day) $18,800,000 (5-day) |
$47,391,666 |
$90,800,000 |
| A Complete Unknown |
December 25 |
Searchlight |
$14,566,666 (3-day) $23,466,666 (5-day) |
$81,280,000 |
$145,340,000 |
| Babygirl |
December 25 |
A24 |
$3,785,714 (3-day) $5,270,000 (5-day) |
$23,537,500 |
$30,012,500 |
| The Fire Inside |
December 25 |
Amazon MGM |
$5,185,714 (3-day) $8,900,000 (5-day) |
$30,142,857 |
$37,814,285 |
| Den of Thieves 2: Pantera |
January 10 |
Lionsgate |
$15,172,727 |
$44,054,545 |
$80,077,272 |
| Better Man |
January 10 |
Paramount |
$4,820,000 |
$14,005,000 |
$64,655,000 |
| Wolf Man |
January 17 |
Universal |
$21,209,090 |
$63,463,636 |
$132,863,363 |
| One of Them Days |
January 17 |
Sony |
$6,860,000 |
$21,320,000 |
$29,500,000 |
| September 5 |
January 17 |
Paramount |
$1,525,714 |
$4,800,000 |
$11,371,428 |
| Presence |
January 24 |
Neon |
$4,133,333 |
$11,583,333 |
$17,850,000 |
Next week, we'll predict Dog Man and Companion.
Before you comment, read these two rules:
1. Please provide specific numbers for your predictions. Don't do like "It'll make less than this or that" or "double this movie or half this movie". We want a real prediction.
2. Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.
So what are your predictions for these films?
