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Ruben Gallego

Current job: Senator-elect from Arizona, will become the state’s junior senator in 2025

Age on Election Day 2028: 48

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Hope everyone had a good Christmas/Hannakuh/whatever you may or may not celebrate. We’re resume this effortpost series starting with Ruben Gallego.

Hispanics have increasingly become one of the more closely watched and hotly debated-over voting demographics in the US. Formerly a strongly Democratic bloc due to GOP opposition to immigration, they have slowly moved more to the right in the Trump era, to the point where Trump’s 2024 numbers with Hispanics are similar to George W. Bush’s 44% in 2004. In the wake of this, thinkers from across the Democratic spectrum have begun to debate how to win back this demographic, key in such states as Arizona, Texas, Georgia, and even the Northeast. That includes finding good messengers within the party of Hispanic descent.

Enter Ruben Gallego. A Marine veteran and Arizona representative of Colombian and Mexican descent, Gallego first reached a wider audience by primary challenging Krysten Sinema, the “Democratic” senator who had been a roadblock alongside Manchin for most of President Biden’s agenda. As Sinema declined to run again, Gallego won the primary handily and defeated the far right Kari Lake in the general. Having outran Harris in a Biden-Trump state, Gallego’s name is one you’re likely to hear more of in the next four years, especially given his background.

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Strengths:

• Inspiring background: his father abandoned the family at an early age, and Gallego goes by his mother’s surname these days over it. He worked numerous odd jobs to pay his way through Harvard. Following that, he enlisted in the Marines and served in Iraq, and his company took some of the heaviest casualties of the war - his best friend even died there.

• Electability - Gallego is perhaps the party’s second highest profile young Hispanic after AOC. Both of these are demographics the Dems have had struggles with in recent years for different reasons, and it stands to argue that he could help win some of them back over. More importantly, he just won a statewide election in a year Trump also won his state - meaning he won at least a few people that voted Trump. Finding someone who can win back Biden-Trump voters will be a key part of any 2028 strategy.

• can theoretically appeal to both wings of the party. Gallego’s challenging of Sinema early on won him wide praise from progressives, but as the realities of a general election in Arizona set in, he moved to the center on key issues such as immigration and inflation. This could win over party elders who want a flexible and pragmatic head of state.

• can stop the Democratic bleeding on border issues and immigration. Gallego tailored his message as “common sense” on border control and being from Arizona only helps with that. He also speaks fluent Spanish and did as such in some ads.

• can make a populist appeal with his youth and backstory.

Weaknesses:

• like Obama, would have only been a senator for four years if he became president. Given the costly mistakes of Obama’s presidency largely stemmed from his inexperience in DC, some party elders may prefer a governor or a senator with more experience.

• there’s an argument to make that he’s not as strong electorally as it seems. Gallego beat Kari Lake, who blew the 2022 governor race to Katie Hobbs, whose campaign was widely seen as incompetent and likely to lose before Election Day. Had the GOP ran a suburban catnip-esque candidate like Doug Ducey, it’s fair to wonder whether Gallego would’ve won.

• has a checkered personal life - he divorced his first wife (now mayor of Phoenix) while she was pregnant. Granted, his ex-wife has continued to support his campaigns, but it’s not a great look and is a potential sore point for Vance and Republicans to exploit. It shouldn’t be a major issue, but in a vibes based political culture it very well could.

• he has a very nasally speaking voice - find virtually clip of him in an interview or a rally. It is, to be frank, not a “manly” voice at all. Again, this is something that on paper no one should give a shit about but very well could if it goes viral in the wrong way.

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My take: Gallego has one of the most “perfect on paper” and straightforward resumes for being the 2028 nominee. He has a strong background, a clear electability argument, checks off some desirable demographic boxes, and probably knows how to keep both major wings of the party happy. However, he will still be a very junior senator in 2028 and his nasally voice is simply not going to inspire people the same way Obama’s did. This may not matter if in four years the environment is very anti-GOP, however. It’ll be very interesting to watch him in the Senate over the next four years - throwing him in the upper chamber will give him more chances for name recognition and notoriety, especially with Trump as president. If things go well for him, expect an exploratory committee or even a campaign announcement in the first half of 2027.