r/irishpolitics • u/JackmanH420 People Before Profit • 25d ago
Moderator Announcement & Sub Matters MEGATHREAD - Government Formation
đ Welcome to the r/IrishPolitics General Election Government Formation Megathread!
------------------------------------------------------
This is our Megathread for discussion of government formation talks.
88 seats are needed to form a majority
------------------------------------------------------
All general discussion / chat / questions relating to the General Election should be posted as a comment within this Megathread so as to keep everything in one place.
đ° If you have articles / news which clearly stand on their own, please don't submit them to the Megathread and instead post them as a separate post.
đ Links as comments are not useful here with context. Add a headline, tweet content or explainer please.
đ¶ Political Song of the day
------------------------------------------------------
đ Final Results:
| Party | First Preference Vote | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| FF | 21.86% (-0.32) | 48 (+10) |
| SF | 19.01% (-5.52) | 39 (+2) |
| FG | 20.80% (-0.06) | 38 (+3) |
| SD | 4.81% (+1.91) | 11 (+5) |
| LAB | 4.65% (+0.27) | 11 (+5) |
| II | 3.55% (NEW) | 4 (NEW) |
| PBP-S | 2.84% (+0.21) | 3 (-2) |
| AON | 3.91% (+2.01) | 2 (+1) |
| GREEN | 3.04% (-4.09) | 1 (-11) |
| INDs | 13.20% (+1) | 16 (-3) |
| OTHERS | 2.32% (+1.04) | 1 (NC) |
| Source: Link | Changes vs 2020 Election |
------------------------------------------------------
đ Link to yesterday's Megathread.
38
u/Purple_Cartographer8 25d ago
FFFG+ independents
28
u/BackInATracksuit 25d ago
Cynically, I think this is the best option right now because it would be an absolute shit show and wouldn't have a hope of lasting five years.
14
u/Eoghanolf 25d ago
If you compare to 2016 fg + independents government, we responded to that government with a sf+SD wave in 2020. I think ffg + independents will be woefully unable to solve our deepest issues of 1) building infrastructure that isn't a multi billion over spend, which means rail, public transit and housing being done RIGHT. 2) disability services with dignity. 3) getting childcare costs down for parents that isn't just a taxback of our own money and 4) preparing ourselves for the corpo tax receipt cliff that may or may not come. Ffg refuse to widen the tax base or invest in real infrastructure that makes us more resilient to the turbulent winds that could knock Ireland (economically speaking)
10
u/wamesconnolly 25d ago
I agree with everything except widening the tax base is a real silly quip that's taken off lately. It doesn't matter if we tax the poorest people more. The amount we get from that will do next to nothing if we do get seriously economically fucked. It's something that SOUNDS like it's progressive and makes sense but it's literally just a way to dress up saying "no no no don't tax the wealthiest any more" when that's what needs to happen.
6
u/BackInATracksuit 25d ago
It makes absolutely zero sense to tax low income workers more. It's already effectively impossible to get by on a low income without social transfers of one kind or another. So it'd either be going straight back to them, or we'd be condemning tens of thousands of people to abject poverty.
2
u/MrWhiteside97 Centre Left 25d ago
Widening the tax base doesn't just mean income tax, it means different forms of tax - it also includes property tax, inheritance tax, service charges (eg water), capital gains tax etc etc etc
You also wouldn't be taxing the poorest people more, because the poorest people are net beneficiaries of transfers. You'd probably be taxing a little bit more off the middle 50%, so that you're not quite as fucked if a big chunk of the top 10% decide to leave and not pay tax here.
4
u/caitnicrun 25d ago
"Â Â which means rail, public transit and housing being done RIGHT."
RIGHT NOW to be precise. It's so overdue it will be a miracle there isn't some damage from that metaphorical turbulence.
7
3
u/NilFhiosAige Centre Left 25d ago
Agree that this is where we're ultimately headed - somewhat of the hysterics on Irish Political Twitter that the Soc Dems haven't already ruled out talking to FF and FG, but A) That immediately narrows their political leverage, B) They know that even with Labour, their contribution to a PfG would be limited by the numbers game, and C) The first actual decisions they've made thus far are to hold talks with SF on Thursday and Labour on Friday.
5
u/Purple_Cartographer8 25d ago
Yeah unfortunately. Soc Dems have some great ideas but they wonât get them implemented if they go in solo.
11
25d ago
A lot of people who offer a lot of analysis of political events seemingly taking everything at face value at the moment. This is all for show.
The government will be FF/FG/Independents.
20
u/danius353 Green Party 25d ago
Harris can and will dig his heels in on the rotating Taoiseach issue.
Martin has cornered FF into going with FG into government and heâll also be keenly aware that while heâs got a 10 seat lead now, the FPV lead was minimal so if they canât form a government and we get another election next year, odds are that FF will lose some seats and FG will end up close to them in seat numbers then.
Harris would likely not have as calamitous a campaign in a re-run election, and the inability to form a government would likely give a filip to SF too. On the other hand, the new FG candidates have had their profiles boosted from this election so would be starting in a better place for a re-run too.
Martin canât risk another election so he canât walk away. Harris will know this and will squeeze him.
12
u/Street_Wash1565 Centre Left 25d ago
No doubt Harris will dig his heels in. I'm sure, also that Martin will argue the point that the gap has gone from 3 seats to 10. Accepting a rotating Taoiseach with 25% more seats makes FF look weak, imo. Will FF/FG just always rotate no matter the gap?
9
u/MushroomGlum1318 25d ago edited 25d ago
They could link each leader's period in the Taoiseach's office pro-rata on the bases on seats. So splitting the tenure 55-45?
12
u/Street_Wash1565 Centre Left 25d ago
They could.
I still would imagine that FF would argue the point that rotating was an exception, and not something they want to assume will happen with every coalition. Again, whether they get their way is to be seen.
I mean, do you give Michael Healy-Ray one week as Taoiseach for his support? (I know, facetious)
5
u/Purgatory115 25d ago
Add to that the fact that if sf ever got into government they'd be fucked.
As it is, people only flip flop between the two parties because they've been told that if sf ever get into government, the world would literally end. Once that stigma goes away I truly believe a lot more people would stop voting the usual pack of cunts back in.
4
7
u/caitnicrun 25d ago
But isn't it just a matter of time before Harris does something impulsive his party can't forgive? The man is tightly wound and emotionally unstable. Â
10
u/danius353 Green Party 25d ago
Why do you make it sound like heâs going to bring an AR-15 into Leinster House
11
u/caitnicrun 25d ago
I was just thinking of him having a meltdown and giving out in a situation where a soft touch is needed. You know, like with a diplomat. Or a health care worker.
But maybe you know something I don't and the situation is more dire than I thought. đł
4
u/SilentBass75 24d ago
What country do you think this is? He'd bring an AR-18 and somehow blame Mary-Lou
3
u/Wallname_Liability 25d ago
Thereâs always McDonald plus Cairns and/or Bacik
3
u/danius353 Green Party 25d ago
Canât see MM backing down on not going in with SF. Unlike FG, there is a very large proportion of the electorate who do not want SF to be near government and given the likely age profile of those people, the overlap with FF and FG voters would be considerable.
2
u/Wallname_Liability 25d ago
On the other hand she could make the exact same offer to Harris, they can do turns as Taoiseach, or even let him after the whole term if it makes the difference between being in government or not
1
u/caitnicrun 25d ago
He'd have to make massive concessions on housing, infrastructure etc. I think it'd be a feather in both their caps to claim responsibility for the first female Taoiseach. Obviously that's not as important as housing, but these things matter in politics.
1
2
u/Busy_Category7977 25d ago
Martin would step down if they went in with SF, but the party itself would be warmer to the idea I'd say
9
u/Trabolgan Fianna FĂĄil 25d ago
FF + SF + PBP = 90. Easy!
3
u/suishios2 Centre Right 25d ago
Youâre just trolling them now! You deserve to, given the flak you have taken in the last few years. But how to resolve the ârevolving Taoiseachâ problem that seemingly will bring all other talks to the point of collapse
8
u/Annatastic6417 25d ago
Here are all the possibilities I could imagine.
(Most likely). Fianna FĂĄil, Fine Gael and Independent TDs to back them up. The problem with this coalition is that Fine Gael may demand a rotating Taoiseach situation, while Fianna FĂĄil want to appear as the stronger party. This petty row could end up breaking any potential coalition agreements and lead to a Left Wing Coalition between Sinn FĂ©in, Fianna FĂĄil and Social Democrats/Labour.
(Less likely). Fianna FĂĄil and Fine Gael try to form a coalition with Labour or Social Democrats. They only agree to a coalition with Fianna FĂĄil and Sinn FĂ©in, not Fianna FĂĄil and Sinn FĂ©in. FF/SF/Lab/SD coalition is formed.
Fianna FĂĄil, Fine Gael and Independent Ireland. It meets the numbers but the Independent Ireland TDs don't have the same experience as the other Independent TDs and most of them are Fianna FĂĄil Independents. The ones who aren't are either too left wing or banned from Fine Gael.
Fianna FĂĄil, Fine Gael, Green, 100%RDR. I'm getting carried away now but the current coalition can survive if they just rebuild every house in Donegal...
Fianna FĂĄil, Sinn FĂ©in, Social Democrats/Labour. Fine Gael could literally not be arsed anymore and choose to spend a few years in opposition. They've been in government since 2011, maybe they want a break...?
1
u/LogDeep7567 24d ago
Ooh I like the option where SF/Labour/Soc Dems agree to go in with FF but not FG. Having seen this option now I think this is a good shout đ
2
u/Annatastic6417 24d ago
It's a possibility but FF/FG/IND is far more likely. The only thing stopping this would be a major row between FF and FG, which can come as a result of a rotating Taoiseach dispute.
6
u/mrlinkwii 24d ago
i want to say fair play on the moderation over the few days , with the election , yous did great
5
u/TheGoat_46 25d ago
FFG + Labour can't see anything else. Can't wait for " tighten your belts". And the Gold plated pensions and handshakes đ€
10
u/VindictiveCardinal Centre Left 25d ago
Since 2016 bookies have been notoriously more accurate than opinion polls when they predicted the votes in favour of Brexit and for Trump. Before the election Paddy Power had FF/FG/Labour as the next government and it looked that would be the case until Labour announced they wouldnât go in on their own. Probably a good move since it would help avoid them being the sole coalition mudguard and getting demolished next election, but given how it makes it more difficult for FF/FG to form a PfG with two instead of one other party Iâm becoming inclined towards believing it will be a government with aligned Independents.
15
u/MyIdoloPenaldo 25d ago
59.7% is not a good turnout at all. The 40 odd percent who didnt vote will be the loudest voices of protest when FG and FF end up forming another government
14
u/wamesconnolly 25d ago
If the leader of one of the parties not being able to vote in the election she is running in doesn't make people realise we need to update our voting system I don't know what will.
9
u/ghostofgralton Social Democrats 25d ago
We are a world leader in restricting access to postal voting.
4
u/Negative-Economist16 Green Party 24d ago
link to IT article with the smorgasbord of independents to choose from.
6
2
u/VindictiveCardinal Centre Left 24d ago
Is there a way I can read without a subscription?
1
24d ago
[removed] â view removed comment
0
u/AutoModerator 24d ago
Use of archive services and other methods to circumvent paywalls is prohibited. Please see Rule 10.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
2
u/Negative-Economist16 Green Party 24d ago
That's rule 11
2
u/VindictiveCardinal Centre Left 23d ago
Funny that the rule saying what not to use enabled me to read to article, thanks!
3
u/wamesconnolly 24d ago edited 23d ago
Don't have anywhere else to post this but thought you guys might be interested. Just got this from people employed in post primary CDETB:
The City of Dublin ETB have been informed of some budgetary constraints in the FET sector for the year 2025. The management team are doing their utmost to minimise the impact of this and are working on it currently. In this centre, we will forward letters next week confirming timetables for the Jan to June term. I am sorry I do not have more detailed information at this point, but hope that your confirmed timetable will provide you with more clarity. I know this is difficult information, please contact your line manager if you need to.
4
u/Fiannafailcanvasser Fianna FĂĄil 24d ago
https://x.com/MichealLehane/status/1864416594325062104
Ceann comhairle election will be interesting.
2
u/AUX4 Right wing 24d ago
Surely Sean will have it.
I'm a bit rusty on a few things, you might be able to help. If Sean was Ceann Comhairle for say 4 years and retired then, would whoever comes after him have to run for re election? Is there some minimum amount of time they need, or is it just based on being incumbent
4
u/Fiannafailcanvasser Fianna FĂĄil 24d ago
No. Seamus kirk became cc midway into the dail but didn't have to run for reelection in 2011.
In theory, the government could install a vulnerable td into the post just before an election, but realistically, that wouldn't be worth the blowback.
5
u/rtgh 11d ago
Seems like the deal is done.
FF, FG and Regional Independents.
MicheĂĄl Martin has phoned Sean O'Fearghail to tell him FF (and presumably FG) will be supporting Verona Murphy for Ceann Comhairle.
Which surely is part of the deal for government formation, because why else would they stop supporting their own man and install someone kicked from FG's ticket for being a far right loon as DĂĄil chair?
3
u/Negative-Economist16 Green Party 25d ago
The question is which independents and when.
They need two groupings of five by my count
3
2
u/brentspar 25d ago
Just being pedantic, is it 87 or 88 seats needed. Given the Ceann Comhairle will take once of the seats.
I know that you need a comfort margin to operate, and you'll find out difficult to get the entire opposition to view against you.
But what's the minimum number of votes needed.
5
u/Trabolgan Fianna FĂĄil 25d ago
87 = exactly 50%, so need 88 to make it 88 to 86.
Bertie says we'd need 94-96 to be stable though. Keeps it going in case of defection, death, or resignation.
2
u/Negative-Economist16 Green Party 24d ago
I wonder how likely it would be that FF or FG would not put forward a CC this Dail since the margin is so tight.
3
u/Trabolgan Fianna FĂĄil 24d ago
Yeah itâs a good point. May pull from the opposition benches. Aengus O Snodaigh for CC!
2
u/Street_Wash1565 Centre Left 23d ago
Talks of SĂF (FF) being re-nominated for CC, so obviously they're confident of comfortable numbers.
1
1
2
u/LogDeep7567 24d ago
Highly likely to be an FFG with either labour or independents but I wouldn't be willing to say that's 100%. I wouldn't rule out the left trying to scupper that somehow. If not this time though they're certainly edging ever closer....
2
u/firethetorpedoes1 24d ago
I'm surprised to see Jack Chamber heading up FF's negotiating team.
6
2
2
u/NilFhiosAige Centre Left 15d ago
You'd likely have got good odds after the election on Labour ending coalition talks before the Soc Dems, but that's what's widely being reported today.
3
u/Muddypaws10 Social Democrats 25d ago
I'd say FFG want a smaller party as a buffer given Trump's plans.
4
1
u/wamesconnolly 24d ago
this is the only actual reason they would go in with Labour and Labour will get 0 concessions from it because they have put themselves in the weakest negotiating position possible by ass kissing and wrecking left for FFFG the entire time
2
u/Bar50cal 25d ago
FF+FG+Labour or Soc Dem to have a secure majority coalition for 5 years. Bit more challenging to get all to agree but they will be secure in government for the 5 years.
FF+FG+Labour+SocDem would give the government the biggest majority and safety for 5 years but having 4 parties work together is messy and challenging in its own ways. I would think FF+FG would prefer to work with not both but just one of either Labour or the Soc Dems.
FF+FG+IND gives FF+FG more control but not as safe a majority to last the 5 years
FF+FG+IND+II is not a coalition I expect but I would see this as more likely than and FF+SF coalition as it would be easier for FF and FG to work with a right wing II part than Left wing SF.
FF+SF is just not going to happen IMO. FF and its voters have zero appetite for it. Transfer votes from FF and SF also show no overlap between SF and FF.
8
u/Naggins 25d ago
FF+FG+IND gives FF+FG more control but not as safe a majority to last the 5 years
Think it's safer for them tbh. Parties can reach a consensus to collapse the government on the basis of national policies that command hundreds of millions in expenditure. Independents will gladly stay on board if their constituency of a few 10,000 people is looked after. Independents are cheap dates.
1
1
u/NilFhiosAige Centre Left 16d ago
Rather surprisingly, the Soc Dems have decided to continue talking to FF, FG, Labour and SF.
1
u/Hardrive33 Social Democrats 15d ago
To be fair, it seems it's mainly setting out the rough vague bits at first with them not even covering the SocDem red lines, next week is the proper talks.
"These talks have been exploratory to date but I expect that next week they will become more focused - particularly on the dealbreakers we highlighted during the election campaign."
1
u/NilFhiosAige Centre Left 15d ago
Bacik now wants a meeting with both Martin and Harris next week to get clarity on their opinion about Labour's priorities.
1
u/FlukyS Social Democrats 25d ago
Only path to not having FF and FG as the lead party is basically down to negotiation, if FF say they won't rotate with FG then SF could maybe do a deal with FG to do a 50:50 split with them and a left alliance to keep out FF and that might bring FF to the table if SF would agree to be the junior party. I think we all expect the status quo but at least there is some negotiation that can happen here feasibly.
18
u/FeistyPromise6576 25d ago
Your feasible option is SF doing a deal with FG? If you believe that I've a lovely monument to sell you in a prime location, how many of your friends own a Spire?
2
u/FlukyS Social Democrats 25d ago edited 25d ago
Well it is only really feasible depending on if Harris accepts not having a rotation basically and I'm not saying that the end result would be SF and FG being in gov together, I mean that FF and SF go in if they can offer FF a better deal than a rotation basically. It would help SF a lot if they have broad agreement with the left alliance going into whatever they do because whoever they go in with wouldn't need independents or the right to form a gov. It would need to be playing both sides to work is what I'm getting at.
3
u/saggynaggy123 25d ago
A left alliance in opposition comprising of SF, SocDems, Labour, PBP and Independents would be ideal. However, Labour won't play ball. Labour seem like they feel entitled to government with the Social Democrats despite the fact Labour is left in name only.
2
25d ago
[deleted]
1
u/saggynaggy123 25d ago
Forming a United Left Opposition wouldn't require a lot, if any independents. It's Opposition, not government.
2
u/FlukyS Social Democrats 25d ago
Well I'd hope Labour have learned from last time, it sounds like the SDs and Labour are fine with chatting with SF at this point and seeing what the common platform would be and how they would break down the opposition.
4
u/wamesconnolly 25d ago
Labour isn't fine with talking with SF, they have already basically dismissed it
2
u/saggynaggy123 25d ago
Yeah same but from Ged Nash, Alan Kelly and Ivana Baciks commented they've learnt nothing.
1
u/methodicalyeti 25d ago
Center left possibilities: FF-FG-SD or FF-FG-SD-Labour (most likely scenario)
Center right possibilites: FF-FG-II-Independents or FF-FG-Independents
There needs to be a 90-95 seats for byelection buffers from what I gathered. AontĂș as mentioned when asked had a chance but they talked so much shit.
1
u/Jester-252 24d ago
FF and independent with FG in a C&S
While people seem to think it is FF/FG government is certain, I think people forget that the current government was agreed to with the backdrop of Covid. I don't think civil war flags were dropped just set aside to ensure a stable government to deal with unstable times
The 10 seat gap is going to be a bridge to far. FF are going to want to be seen as the top dogs which FG will refuse. I also think the conversation of "just merge" is going to galvanize both parties to look to re-establish their separate identity
As left field call, no pun, is a SF-FG-Lab-SD rainbow.
SF-Lab-SD approach FG as a unit. Government has a strong left approach to social policy with FG having the more of the financial ministers. SF-FG take turns leading.
9
u/JarvisFennell Social Democrats 24d ago
We can't honestly sit here and pretend that there's any policy conflicts between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail that would stop them forming a government together. Civil War politics died in 2020, if the narrative is to now pin that on Covid then they'd want to go back to the drawing board and find a better excuse.
Quick edit: seem to remember the narrative from Varadkar in 2020 was that "this is the government people voted for so we have an obligation to make it happen", so is that a lie now?
2
u/Jester-252 24d ago
We can't honestly sit here and pretend that there's any policy conflicts between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail that would stop them forming a government together.
Can you honestly sit here and pretend that there's any policy conflicts between the top 5 parties that would stop them forming a government together.
Irish system trends politics towards the center
Civil War politics died in 2020, if the narrative is to now pin that on Covid then they'd want to go back to the drawing board and find a better excuse.
Narrative? Are you saying that the current government wasn't formed with under the backdrop of a global pandemic?
That is a fact you can't ignore
Quick edit: seem to remember the narrative from Varadkar in 2020 was that "this is the government people voted for so we have an obligation to make it happen", so is that a lie now?
You can literally say that about every coalition government.
5
u/JarvisFennell Social Democrats 24d ago
Yes - here's some of the policy conflicts that I've picked up from reading manifestos. A red line for Fianna Fail on the current First Home Scheme and First Time Buyers rules out Sinn Fein who want to phase it out (they also mention or illude to Sinn Fein being eurosceptic, which for them is a red line). Soc Dems have 5 red lines on entering government which Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are unlikely to meet the demands of, but SocDems have said they're open to compromise. Labours new red line seems to be they will not enter government without Soc Dems.
I'm saying the covid thing is a weak narrative and that it's very likely they would have formed this coalition government regardless.
Yes you can say it about every coalition government, so why not this one potential next one? They've been joined at the hip for 5 years dont act like it's a massive challenge to see it happening again.
1
u/Jester-252 24d ago
Yes - here's some of the policy conflicts that I've picked up from reading manifestos. A red line for Fianna Fail on the current First Home Scheme and First Time Buyers rules out Sinn Fein who want to phase it out (they also mention or illude to Sinn Fein being eurosceptic, which for them is a red line). Soc Dems have 5 red lines on entering government which Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are unlikely to meet the demands of, but SocDems have said they're open to compromise. Labours new red line seems to be they will not enter government without Soc Dems.
You just listed out things that parties would be compromise on. You even claim SD are willing to compromise on "red line" issues.
I'm saying the covid thing is a weak narrative and that it's very likely they would have formed this coalition government regardless.
Covid happened. It isn't a narrative. You can't ignore the impact it had on decision making at the time.
Yes you can say it about every coalition government, so why not this one potential next one? They've been joined at the hip for 5 years dont act like it's a massive challenge to see it happening again.
Never said it was a massive challenge for them to work together. Hell I'm literally saying all of the top 5 have could work together.
The first line on my original comment has the two working together. Not sure where you are getting this narrative from.
1
u/AUX4 Right wing 24d ago
I'd hope eurosceptism is a red line for most parties.
1
u/JarvisFennell Social Democrats 24d ago
Yeah I just wasn't aware myself that Sinn Fein were eurosceptic
1
u/60mildownthedrain Republican 10d ago
So it looks like at least 13 of LAB/SD TDs voted for the FF options or Verona Murphy over Ă'Snodaigh
1
23
u/IrishLad1002 25d ago
Letâs be real here. Itâs going to be Fianna FĂĄil, Fine Gael and a handful of independents. Quite possibly Independents Ireland.