r/democrats • u/Promethiant • Nov 08 '24
Opinion No, 20 million Democrats did not just “not show up.”
I have been seeing this very misguided idea floating around this sub, so I’ve decided to put it to rest by calculating the remaining vote and seeing how we can expect it to add up. I’m only calculating the substantial remaining vote, meaning I’m not doing it for states that are 99% reported, as that would take forever. I’ll cluster those together in a lazy calculation at the end.
California — 7,520,900 votes to be counted.
Assuming current splits hold up (though these votes may be more heavily in Harris’s favor):
Harris — 4,332,038 Votes Trump - 2,985,796 Votes
Oregon — 257,107 votes to be counted
Harris — 257,107 votes Trump — 197,631 votes
Washington — 509,070 votes to be counted
Harris — 297,296 votes Trump — 198,028 votes
Maryland — 550,074 votes to be counted
Harris — 333,894 votes Trump — 201,877 votes
Arizona — 825,835 votes to be counted
Harris — 384,839 votes Trump — 433,563 votes
Nevada — 134,357 votes to be counted
Harris — 63,416 votes Trump — 68,522 votes
Now we will assume that every other state is collectively 99.5% reported, meaning ~715,567 votes remain. Since this is between both red and blue states, I’ll just assume a 50/50 split on these votes.
This means 10,512,910 votes have yet to be reported.
This brings the final expected popular vote total to:
Harris — 75,054,105 Trump — 77,813,469
Overall: 152,867,574 votes
Compare to 2020:
Biden: 81,283,501 Trump: 74,223,975
Overall: 155,507,476
This means that 2024 turnout will be approximately 98.3% of 2020 turnout.
So no, it is not true that we lost because “20 million Democrats just couldn’t get off the couch.” Unfortunately, there was just an overall substantial rightward shift, which aligns with the incumbency disadvantage we’ve been seeing globally due to inflation.