r/democrats Nov 08 '24

Opinion No, 20 million Democrats did not just “not show up.”

Post image
2.6k Upvotes

I have been seeing this very misguided idea floating around this sub, so I’ve decided to put it to rest by calculating the remaining vote and seeing how we can expect it to add up. I’m only calculating the substantial remaining vote, meaning I’m not doing it for states that are 99% reported, as that would take forever. I’ll cluster those together in a lazy calculation at the end.

California — 7,520,900 votes to be counted.

Assuming current splits hold up (though these votes may be more heavily in Harris’s favor):

Harris — 4,332,038 Votes Trump - 2,985,796 Votes

Oregon — 257,107 votes to be counted

Harris — 257,107 votes Trump — 197,631 votes

Washington — 509,070 votes to be counted

Harris — 297,296 votes Trump — 198,028 votes

Maryland — 550,074 votes to be counted

Harris — 333,894 votes Trump — 201,877 votes

Arizona — 825,835 votes to be counted

Harris — 384,839 votes Trump — 433,563 votes

Nevada — 134,357 votes to be counted

Harris — 63,416 votes Trump — 68,522 votes

Now we will assume that every other state is collectively 99.5% reported, meaning ~715,567 votes remain. Since this is between both red and blue states, I’ll just assume a 50/50 split on these votes.

This means 10,512,910 votes have yet to be reported.

This brings the final expected popular vote total to:

Harris — 75,054,105 Trump — 77,813,469

Overall: 152,867,574 votes

Compare to 2020:

Biden: 81,283,501 Trump: 74,223,975

Overall: 155,507,476

This means that 2024 turnout will be approximately 98.3% of 2020 turnout.

So no, it is not true that we lost because “20 million Democrats just couldn’t get off the couch.” Unfortunately, there was just an overall substantial rightward shift, which aligns with the incumbency disadvantage we’ve been seeing globally due to inflation.

r/democrats Sep 02 '24

Opinion F the Green Party

Post image
2.9k Upvotes

r/democrats 12d ago

Opinion Kamala Harris is reportedly eyeing another White House run. That's a mistake.

Thumbnail
msnbc.com
1.1k Upvotes

r/democrats Jul 24 '24

Opinion Mary Trump says Kamala Harris "terrifies" Donald to "point of incoherence"

Thumbnail
newsweek.com
2.3k Upvotes

r/democrats Nov 07 '24

Opinion AOC did a really great Instagram live today, and I think it is a really great breakdown of what happened, where we are, and where we should go. She's really growing as a politician.

Thumbnail
instagram.com
1.5k Upvotes

r/democrats Jul 09 '24

Opinion Message to Jon Stewart

Post image
806 Upvotes

Can someone send this memo to Jon Stewart?

I am so fucking sick of Stewart’s incessant bitching. I know Stewart and his fanboys fancy him the intellectual authority on all things but the “YOUR OLD! PEOPLE WANT TO BE INSPIRED!” take isn’t exactly cutting edge.

And didn’t we already try that in 2008? I seem to remember the change that followed the “inspiration” being too incremental and that resulted in a bunch of voters staying home in 2016 and landing us in this mess to begin with.

Maybe an “intellectual” like Stewart should try educating his viewers instead of just riling up anger. Biden’s record is the most effective of a single term since LBJ. Even if you disagree with his agenda (and from what I can tell, his left leaning critics don’t disagree with his agenda, just his age), he has governed effectively. But by all means

Look, if “I am voting to save small ‘d’ democracy so you can have the option to vote again in the future” doesn’t inspire you, I don’t know what will.

Because clearly pulling our country back from the brink of economic collapse and a public health dumpster fire (that the last administration dumped fuel on top of) didn’t do it for you. Nor did ending our longest running war or masterfully handling every foreign policy crisis that has presented. Or his steps toward marijuana reform. Or his historic infrastructure package. Or the billions of forgiven student loans. Or record pace of judicial appointments that will hopefully undo some of the damage McConnell has done to the federal judiciary.

Nor does that concept of giving the Presidency back to a convicted felon right after the Supreme Court has made a roadmap to using the Presidency to carry out self-interested illegality up to, and including, ORDERING THE ASSASSINATION OF POLITICAL OPPONENTS!

It’s funny that Stewart considers himself such a savvy critic on mainstream media, given that he is pushing their same nonsensical talking points. Looks like the dude bought into his own hype so much that he cannot even see he’s become the thing he devoted his career to criticizing.

So, Mr. Stewart, to you I say — will you shut up, man?

r/democrats 3d ago

Opinion Congress has the power to block Trump from taking office, but lawmakers must act now

Thumbnail
thehill.com
619 Upvotes

r/democrats Nov 16 '24

Opinion The Biden-Trump White House meeting was more than just a photo-op

Thumbnail
msnbc.com
739 Upvotes

r/democrats Nov 11 '24

Opinion Can’t believe some vets voted for him.

Post image
1.5k Upvotes

r/democrats Oct 22 '24

Opinion How to Delete Your McDonalds Account

Post image
701 Upvotes

Just deleted my McDonald’s account, and the app from my phone.

With two little ones, McDonalds has always been an easy option for family dinner. But also with two little ones, I can’t in good conscience continue to support a corporation that is disinterested in my business and publicly supports anti-democratic political candidates.

Voting Blue is already making us healthier!

r/democrats Feb 09 '24

Opinion Just Say It, Democrats: Biden Has Been a Great President

Thumbnail
newrepublic.com
1.5k Upvotes

r/democrats 11d ago

Opinion Three Can't Lose Issues for Democrats: 1) Medicare for All; 2) Ban lawmakers' Investing in Individual Stocks; and 3) Overturn Citizens United. If Democrats stick to these 3 issues, they lose corporate support, but actually start to be viewed as authentic by the other 99% of the US.

Thumbnail
nytimes.com
797 Upvotes

r/democrats Aug 11 '24

Opinion Even though Kamala Harris will likely take over next year, I'll probably miss Joe Biden. He represents a much more innocent time in our country. 😭

Post image
1.2k Upvotes

r/democrats 23d ago

Opinion With the election over, Republicans are suddenly interested in cutting Social Security

Thumbnail
msnbc.com
864 Upvotes

r/democrats Oct 05 '24

Opinion As a Moderate Democrat, I don't get why there are 'enlightened centrists' like Piers Morgan who say they prefer Trump over Harris because of the 'culture wars' and 'wokeism'. You can still be critical of ultra-progressive policies while viewing Harris as the obviously better candidate over Trump.

Post image
509 Upvotes

r/democrats Jul 21 '24

Opinion Buck up, Democrats. Don’t talk yourselves into losing to Trump.

Thumbnail
washingtonpost.com
894 Upvotes

r/democrats Nov 11 '24

Opinion Trump can keep campaign promises or be popular. But not both. Should he go through with his radical agenda, Democrats will have lots of ammunition for the 2026 and 2028 elections.

Thumbnail
washingtonpost.com
524 Upvotes

r/democrats Nov 26 '24

Opinion Calling for Biden to pardon Trump willfully ignores the obvious

Thumbnail
msnbc.com
512 Upvotes

r/democrats 20d ago

Opinion Trump is already backing off his most important campaign promise

Thumbnail
msnbc.com
645 Upvotes

r/democrats Apr 01 '21

Opinion Trump started it....

Post image
2.3k Upvotes

r/democrats Sep 04 '21

Opinion The Republican hypocrisy is astounding.

Post image
6.2k Upvotes

r/democrats Nov 06 '24

Opinion How can I really sit with the fact that there 70 million people that just hate who I am?

Post image
0 Upvotes

I’m actually heartbroken over this. As a black woman, I live in a country where people would rather have a racist, bigoted, fascist, felon as president than another decent hardworking black woman. Upset is an understatement. The fact that he won, is appalling, and hard to wrap my head around. The fact that he won so easily, that there was seemingly no chance is so depressing The fact that he might actually win the popular vote too is isolating and downright scary. I'm a woman of color, I have never felt so betrayed, so scared, so…so empty. I live in a country where 70 million people think I shouldn’t have rights as a woman to thrive. 70 million people see me and my immigrant family as subhuman. 70 million people that don’t care that this man is keen on setting us to the days of McCarthyism and beyond. America let me down today. It’s trust lost, that’ll be hard to earn back.

r/democrats Jun 28 '24

Opinion Seriously, stop reactionary doom posting and do something to help win in November.

Post image
478 Upvotes

r/democrats Mar 29 '21

Opinion This is exactly what they say.

Post image
2.3k Upvotes

r/democrats Jul 04 '22

Opinion Gavin Newsom is doing more than just crushing Ron DeSantis

Thumbnail
cnn.com
1.2k Upvotes