r/InternationalNews • u/Reddit_Sucks_1401 • Nov 07 '24
Ukraine/Russia Ukraine shifts on peace talks after Trump’s victory
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u/Reddit_Sucks_1401 Nov 07 '24
07/11/2024
Source: TRT World
TRT World has exclusively been told that Ukraine is finally willing to negotiate peace with Russia that could see it concede territory. A senior Ukrainian government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed this to TRT World on Wednesday. This represents a shift from Kiev's previous stance of not giving up Ukrainian areas held by Russian forces. The change comes in the wake of Donald Trump’s re-election as US president, amid speculation that he may use his position to push for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. TRT World’s Joel Flynn has the exclusive report.
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u/thefirebrigades Nov 07 '24
If America was in a position to actually intervene in Ukraine by military means to stop Russia then it would have done so with or without a formal treaty or alliance with Ukraine.
Ukraine's done. It is not Trump's victory that means Ukraine's defeat, Ukraine has already been defeated. Trump's victory is just an opportunity for Trump to stop the aid to Ukraine and blame the whole defeat on the Democrats. Which is fair enough really because this entire war began in 2014 after the maidan regime change and that was under Obama.
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u/Marcusss_sss Nov 08 '24 edited Nov 08 '24
These are just the same gross recycled talking points from almost 3 years ago. Ukraines already defeated while the lines have hardly changed. I will never understand how someone can be so strongly against what Israel's doing while having such a hardon for Russian imperialism and mass murder.
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u/thefirebrigades Nov 08 '24
Suppose a Jenga tower falls over, but instead of letting it splat into pieces, you hold it together with both hands. Now the question is whether the game is over?
The west are those hands. Without us, Ukraine cannot function, unlike Israel which can exist without western intervention provided the Arab countries and resistance organisation/terrorists don't mobilise in unison to attack it. Ukraine no longer can, because Russia is placing so much pressure on the entire Ukranian country, militaristically, economically, energy wise, demographically, etc that the country can no longer function if we pull those two hands away. (ironically I think the way Israel is going, soon enough it will be a similar situation where it needs constant support, by which time, I think it has also effectively lost.)
The Russians have gained more territory in the last 3 months than the first year of war, but even if we put that aside frontline does not have to change for us to 'lose'. The west has built its reputation as the global hegemon and any war in which it does not achieve an overwhelming victory is a defeat. There was no 'massive changes' in the contact line in Iraq, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Korea (especially after 1951), etc, but we are defeated all the same. It is the same for Ukraine, because the west has public annouced that anything short of the 1991 borders is not a victory, and Russia just have to set up in Ukraine and let us crash into their lines with the signature western self righteous indignation and moral superiority.
Putin has already taken significant parts (and the parts with Russian speaking Ukranians), and as long as he holds on to those regions, there is no way to media spin that into a western victory, or a Ukranian victory. And that is what he banked on while turning the hard task of invasion into a defender's advantage.
Imperailism is not just war, it is a geopolitical mode used to subjugate and loot colonised countries. In this way, Russians are not imperialist, may be because they are too weak, or lack influence, or simply cannot get away with it. They have killed millions, wrecked ukraine, but they are not profiting from this, nor does Russia maintain a network of colonised countries like our empire. For one, there is no network of KGB or military bases across the world, regardless of how much 'russian disinformation' is out there, at best they have some bot farms and hackers spreading shit online. Nor does Russia achieve its geopolitical strategy via regime change, there may be some 'pro-russian leaders' like Oban in Hungary, Xi in China, or even Modi in India, but each of those leaders are products of their local government system, election or no. None of them had been appointed during a 'reverse Russian colour revolution' where an elected pro-west leader was deposed at gunpoint and a Russian raised in Moscow was flown in to be president.
But even if we disregard those points and say that Russia is imperialist and the proxy war in Ukraine is a war where two imperialist powers duke it out for influence and raw power. Even if I assume that Russian security concerns in not having a hostile military alliance on its border is paranoia. Then nevertheless it is obvious that between the west as an imperial power, and Russia as the second imperial power, the west is the aggressive one pushing war towards a nuclear armed rival.
In this scenario, the two sides are not on a spectrum of 'left' or 'right' politics but one is the attacking and the other is defending. It is super obvious at the end of the day just looking at the funding, arms, and location of this war. I do not accept America having carriers in the south China sea, about 12,000 km from coastal USA, is 'defensive' and I will also not accept China sending carriers to 'freedom of navigation' up and down the coast off LA to be 'defensive'. Russia is not fighting a proxy war against USA in Mexico, or Guam, or even in Africa where the two imperialists fight over resources. This is literally on their border, and even in a war between two imperialists, I condemn the aggressor which risks nuclear war for a potential victory over its rival. A victory that is not essential for the continued existence of the western empire, but pushes Russia to have to win at all cost because defeat means the country would never be safe from the other imperial power ever again.
Its like at the end of the day, if two mobsters gets into a fight, but they are fighting on the front lawn of one of the mobster, then I can be sure he who lives there did not provoke a fight there, but trouble came to him.
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u/ShadeOfUnderstanding Nov 07 '24
Zelensky is OK with the IOF invading palestine and believes they have a right to 'defend' their selves. He was knee deep with the zionists and biden, and they have used and left him to rot. I say that's Karma, he traded his moral compass for a deal with the devil ✨️
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u/Knight_Repeatedly Nov 07 '24
The guy is trying to save his country. I'm not going to hold someone in negative regard when, with a diplomatic gun to their head, they say things i do not like. If he opens his mouth negatively about Israel then that makes it more likely that his country ceases to exist.
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u/NoHandBananaNo Nov 07 '24
Zelensky is one person.
The civilians in Ukraine deserve better despite their leaderships positions.
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u/DaBoyJohnny Nov 07 '24
Not really, 70% of them indicated on a survey that they support only Israel. Only 1% said that they supported the Palestinian cause. There are literally memorials in Ukraine to people like Golda Mier, the guy even the US and Israel considered a terrorist. At the end of the day, Putin’s claims about Ukraine being rampant with Nazis is not really ahistoric. I struggle to feel sympathy for them, they have more than enough from the rest of the planet
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u/NoHandBananaNo Nov 07 '24
Youve probably got compassion fatigue. These are just people, same as anywhere else.
I get it, human suffering is painful to watch. It can be tempting to make up some reason, like a survey, to call a whole group "them" and decide its a reason to not care about them. Take that little part of the weight of the world off your shoulders.
But the reality is if you came across some wounded 14 year old kid whose never heard of Golda Meir you'd probably help them out of the rubble.
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u/DaBoyJohnny Nov 07 '24
Not really, it is very much representative of their attitudes towards this subject. I also hate how much seemingly people like you seem to have so much nuance and compassion on this subject, but when it comes to Palestinians it’s immensely easier to either call them all terrorists or to excuse their deaths because of Hamas. To be honest even the classification of “terrorist” shows the inherent bigotries, they are resistance fighters. It’s not compassion fatigue, it’s lack of compassion for terrible people. Even after being allowed into western countries as asylum seekers (which they were allowed to do with insane ease) these Nazi attitudes shined through. Ukrainians in the UK were shocked that their kids had to go to school with brown kids. All in all I still don’t think they should have to be occupied, but it represents a funny karmic justice that the US is rerouting weapons meant for Ukraine to Israel. Guess that’s what happens when you support settler colonialism 🤷♂️
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u/NoHandBananaNo Nov 07 '24
HUH? Check my submission history and my comment history.
I am VIOLENTLY opposed to all forms of colonialism and all forms of genocide including the Gaza Genocide.
Youll also see from my submission history on this site before the reddit blackout that for YEARS i was sharing content to raise awareness about, for example
genocide in Tigray
genocide in Myanmar
genocide in West Papua
human rights in occupied Western Sahara
human rights abuses in DRC
As well as compassion fatigue I think maybe youre in a rut where you get used to responding to talking points instead of seeing the people youre talking to as people. I mean really, what was this:
people like you
Its wild to me that you made the above set of assumptions about me being somehow a pro colonial zionist racist just off the back of me having sympathy for a civilian population in Eastern Europe.
Generalisations and short cuts are not a good replacement for critical thinking.
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u/phovos Nov 07 '24
You were very vague and still haven't made a real point. What do the civilians of Ukraine deserve exactly? What do the civilians of Israel?
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u/NoHandBananaNo Nov 07 '24
Hi random person. Not sure quite what youre asking in this context but
collective punishment is a war crime for good reason
all civilian populations deserve full human rights
Collective blame is especially egregious when civilian populations dont have access to free and fair elections, but even when they nominally do I think it's a weak minded approach.
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u/Cautious_Ad_6486 Nov 07 '24
Sorry, there are memorials for Golda Meir, a jewish MAN that was a TERRORIST?
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u/DaBoyJohnny Nov 07 '24
Mb I got the name mixed up with Meir Kahane, in any case though the point stands, both the Ukrainian populous and government are unequivocally pro genocide. He remains exceptionally popular in many post Soviet countries
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u/Cautious_Ad_6486 Nov 07 '24
Lol, never heard of this and I seriously doubt this is even remotely true. I love how ukrainians are alternatively nazis or ultranationalist jews. Are you all so imbued of your anti-western ideology to not see how absurd are the things you sayé
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u/DaBoyJohnny Nov 07 '24
You know an easy way to confirm it? Google. It's free, just enter what you need in the search bar and press enter.
its also funny you think im presenting them as either or, ultranationalist israeli jews are Nazis. They are one and the same. You dont have to have a funny mustache and a swastika to be a Nazi.2
u/speakhyroglyphically Nov 08 '24
They deserve better than to be used as a US/NATO proxy, pulled off the street and forced to fight for expanionist western interests. Zelensky should have allowed elections long ago. I think if the people were granted the election due them they would overwhelmingly reject his leadership.
Let's not forget that Ukraine suffered a color revolution called maiden in 2014 where the US usurped the peoples will and installed a right wing government which bombed their own countrymen in Donbas for years.
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u/NoHandBananaNo Nov 08 '24
Sure. My point is just its all very well to gloat over Zelensky getting what that poster perceives as "karma" but Ukrainian people are suffering. Again.
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u/OcupiedMuffins Nov 07 '24
Just looking a few things up in a matter of a few minutes, I think you’re misunderstanding zelensky’s support of Israel as support for genocide. He is ok with Israel defending themselves from attacks like what hamas did in the opening salvo, but he has (albeit, not very explicitly) condemned their overblown reaction and what they’re doing now.
He’s in a very precarious situation that no one could possibly understand. He’s at war, and losing, with a much stronger and larger country and the countries leaned on is certain going to stop supporting them. That’s terrifying, especially when they’ve been at war for years now and God knows what Putin is going to do Ukraine and it’s people if he wins.
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u/NoHandBananaNo Nov 07 '24
The situation for Ukrainians is horrible and they deserve to have a free country.
Zelensky is a deeply flawed human being. Under his leadership Ukraine was still militarily supporting the genocidal Tatmadaw at a time when few nations in the world would. Other rogue supporters of the Tatmadaw during and post-genocide include both Russia and Israel.
Nevertheless that doesnt change the plight of the Ukrainian people.
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u/speakhyroglyphically Nov 07 '24
It would be good if Ukraine faced up to the situation and we could all back off from what is essentially a US, NATO Proxy war against Russia behind an attempt to expand NATO even further east.
A promise that they broke multiple times over the years since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 by expanding to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Albania, Poland, Czechia, Hungary..
Im pretty sure most Ukrainians would actually prefer a negotiated settlement if Russia will decide to take one.
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u/Cautious_Ad_6486 Nov 07 '24
Man, this is a bunch of... erhmmm... very partial takes on the world?
- No one really promised anything
- it's not west's fault if all Russia's neighbours hate the Russians, fear them and beg to join a military alliance against them. Many of them strongarmed the americans in letting them in.
- I can assure you that most Ukrainians would actually prefer to fight to the death, right now.4
u/speakhyroglyphically Nov 07 '24 edited Nov 07 '24
Man, this is a bunch of... erhmmm
Interesting. I have noticed over the course of any converstion online about this conflict that Ukraine supporters tend to unnecessarily rude with anyone not 'all in'. Is that some kind of 'dont talk about it 'hasbara'?
I can assure you that most Ukrainians would actually prefer to fight to the death, right now.
I suppose it's easy to say that in your place of comfort
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u/Cautious_Ad_6486 Nov 07 '24
Bro, had ukrainians as guests last week and spoke with them. They still believe they can win this.
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u/thefirebrigades Nov 07 '24
Ukraine has always been a democratic enterprise given how much money that the Biden family has been taking from the Ukranian oligarchs. Just Hunter alone has been taking about half a million per year, not disclosed for tax reasons, from his laptop leaks.
Now their president is out, obviously their venture to expand NATO is sunk. Ukraine will not be able to gain anything at the negotiating table that it cannot gain on the battlefield. Bottomline is that no 'talk' will reverse the situation on the battlefield and Putin will extract his pound of flesh for casualties suffered by Russia. There will be no placating Russia, because after two Minsk agreements and the west breaking them, there will not be enough trust for a third.
What remains of Ukraine are the millions that died, millions maimed, millions fled the country, the towns and cities wrecked. All because they believed what the west was selling and when it came time to deliver a militaristic victory, the west couldn't. This will serve as a great and serious warning to all other willing proxies for the west, where things actually lead to war, the west will do nothing even while promising 'Ukraine will be in NATO'.
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Nov 07 '24
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Arithese Nov 07 '24
We want to remind you all to keep the discussions here civil and respectful. Please avoid name-calling, passive-aggressive comments, and any form of personal attacks. If you come across any inappropriate messages, please report them instead of responding with a retort. Let’s maintain a positive and constructive environment and assume that everyone is arguing in good faith until proven otherwise.
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u/Cautious_Ad_6486 Nov 07 '24
Lol, this sub is hilarious... the WEST broke the Minsk Agreements? Are you high?
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u/thefirebrigades Nov 07 '24
Merkel admits that Minsk was a ploy to stall Russia and buy time, in an interview hosted with Die Zeit on 7 December 2022.
read it with google translation:
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u/Cautious_Ad_6486 Nov 07 '24
This article is not even remotely close related to what you say bro. It's an interview of Zelensky in which he complains that Merkel was too eager to satisfy the Russians at Ukraine's expense.
Did you link the wrong article or what?
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u/thefirebrigades Nov 07 '24
nah, its just another article that Zelensky admitting not implementing Minsk and ceasefire required by Minsk was never implemented. Ukraine kept shelling Donbas for about 8 years, that the time Minsk 'bought'.
qoute from this article from zelensky:
"I saw only one purpose in these agreements: thanks to them, there was an official platform for talks to resolve anything at all. And then I focused on the issue of the prisoner exchange and said to the head of the presidential office: Andriy, let's expand this, it's about people. And if we manage an "all for all" exchange, we'll look further. But as far as Minsk as a whole is concerned, I told Macro and Merkel: we cannot implement it like this.'
but if you want the Merkel one, read this:
qoute from this one from Merkel:
"I thought the idea of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO, which was discussed in 2008, was wrong. The countries did not have the necessary prerequisites for this, nor had the consequences of such a decision been fully considered, both with regard to Russia's actions against Georgia and Ukraine and to NATO and its mutual assistance rules. And the Minsk Agreement in 2014 was an attempt to give Ukraine time."
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u/Cautious_Ad_6486 Nov 07 '24
Sorry bro, but you are really twisting the words of these articles to suit your narrative. Of course Minsk was an attempt to give ukraine time: time to achieve a sustainable peace with Russia, not to make war.
It was kinda imposed on the Ukrainians by the west (they wanted to go on with their military attacks on the separatists) and that's what Zelensky is complaining about.I don't know (and for sure you don't know) who broke the Minsk agreement first. Actually I think that even Putin and Zelesnky don't know that. I doubt that Ukrainian government really had that much control over military leaders in the east. Putin and the Russian government had even less control over the Donbass and Luhansk militants.
For sure, it was not "the west" that broke it.
I dunno who broke the agreement but I know that it wasn't someone with exactly 0 armed men in eastern ukraine
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u/thefirebrigades Nov 07 '24
I dont care about the words, I care about what happened. The words just back up what was obvious after Minsk broke down.
There is a channel on youtube that dates back to the Maidan coup, called Patrick Lancaster that documents that Ukraine has never stopped shelling Donbas for the last 10 years. Regardless of how 'sustainable peace' is to be achieved, an armstice like North/South Korea is the first step, and not even that was permitted.
If the idea is to 'buy time' for Ukraine to negotiate, then negotiations would have produced another agreement, or at least there would be an end to fighting temporarily. There has been no pauses and more than 14000 death for the civilians in Donbas. There has been increased arms supply to Ukraine since Minsk. NATO was in Ukraine training massive amount of troops to prepare for the coming war. By 2022, there was approximately half a million Ukranian troops deployed in the east, that is not a posture of de-escalation.
If the idea was diplomatic solution, there has been 3 different attempts at diplomacy from Russia between 2018-2022, including two instances where draft treaties has been placed on the table. Each time it was a non-starter until Russia invaded, and even post invasion the draft settlement was called off by a visit by Boris Johnson.
Even if we disregard all of that and say that the goal is peace, then what happened following the invasion makes it abundantly clear that war had always been the goal. There has never been any compromise, no negotiations other than calling Russia to surrender, endless arms shipments in the hundreds of billions, mercenaries and sheepdiped soldiers fighting against Russia. Ukraine was serving its purpose in war, and in peace, its a liability that just eats up foreign aid.
When Merkel said what she did and Zelensky admits that Minsk could not be implemented, it was clear that they were trying to deceive Russia. Because if they said this agreement is not implementable back then, then the two sides would have continued to negotiate until an agreement that can be implemented is reached.
This pattern of behaviour is obvious to me, because only western proxies act like this. Israel reached a temporary ceasefire with Hamas for a single week from 24th to 30th November 2023, and even during that 7 day ceasefire, they were still bombing hospitals. There has been so many resolutions and negotiations on the two state solution, but its not implemented and is only designed to placate the global communities. There is always the talk of peace as more and more bombs are flown into the country. And when they finally pay for their actions, they loudly scream that they are the victim.
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u/Cautious_Ad_6486 Nov 07 '24
Lol bro, you really are in a bubble.
Listen, it is unreasonable to assume that Russians did not have their reasons other than ferocity to do what they did like most western media do.But really, you are twisting the reality in front of you to suit your ideas.
Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and Russia launched a full-scale invasion in 2022.
And what is the issue with Israel bro, I know that in your mind all seem connected because those are all "western proxies" that are all part of the same grand scheme but the reality is that there is no scheme. Zelensky does not give a shit about Netanyau and Bibi returns the favour.
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u/thefirebrigades Nov 08 '24
If you ask the most brainless AI, like chatGPT, you will see that the conflict in Georgia in 2008 was started on the 14-15 June 2008 when the Georgia forces shelled the South Ossetia region, which is very much like Donbas of Ukraine, and Russia did not intervene until about 7th August after about a month.
But you are right, Georgia was being the exact same problem as Ukraine had been. Because in the 2008 speech of George W Bush, he declared the NATO would expand to include two more countries, Ukraine is what we have been talking about, and Georgia was the other. While he was speaking in Bucharest, the Russians warned that any further expansion of NATO to the east would lead to war. Georgia was first, and Ukraine was second.
In 2014, the trigger event was the Maidan coup that saw the elected president of Ukraine flee the country. During the span of about 3 months after that coup, the eastern part of Ukraine all declared independence and the civil war is what led to the real war today. Russian troops was already in Crimea at the time of the coup but was allowed by the pre-coup government, and afterwards they became 'little green man' and 'invaders'. What the western media does not tell you is that more than half of the Ukranian Navy defected to Russia when the coup took place because they did not recognise the new president. This is why in the current war, there is no navy battles on the black sea.
Israel and Ukraine are actually competitors because they both want undivided US attention and support. If Zelensky could manage it, he would want the middle east to settle down so his issue is the ONLY one in the world like pre-8th October 2023, and Netanyahu would prefer the same, vice versa. I draw the similarity to their behaviour because it is ONLY with western meddling would they be this aggressive, because without western backing, they cannot sustain their positions. Which compels these countries to peace, and there would be no war in either instance.
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u/Cautious_Ad_6486 Nov 08 '24
ehehe... I don't need to read all of this. I just need to notice that you conveniently forget (or even ignore as you did not bother) everything the Russians did in South Ossetia prior to the 2008 crisis, like you most probably have a very superficial understanding of what the so-called "maidan" was.
Since I cannot replace a serious analysis for you, I'll leave you to your world of western conspiracies.
Don't worry, most people are just like you, only for another side. Just don't pretend to be more informed than others. You most definitely are not.
Have a good life
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u/wamesconnolly Nov 07 '24
Biden being an obstinante, demented, brain melted idiot has meant that Ukraine is going to get a worse negotiation than they could have had a year and 2 years ago. Good job. At least they aren't fighting to the last Ukrainian anymore.
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u/MancombSeepgoodz Nov 07 '24
Even if the deal was reached this "peace" wont last long, Putin will move to annex more and more of Ukraine and move on to other countries while Trump supporting idiots will claim that "Trump stopped the wars"
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u/notnotnotnotgolifa Cyprus Nov 07 '24
I dont think so Russia will have achieved its strategic goals for now. Its not a wild animal
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u/Power_baby Nov 08 '24
Israel had achieved its strategic goals many times. And yet it's repeatedly not enough.
Why would Russia, a country with a very similar ruler, not do the same? You literally have it in your own post, the words "for now"
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u/frenchsmell Nov 07 '24 edited Nov 07 '24
What they want in exchange is for sure entrance to NATO or signing a defense treaty with the US.
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u/MancombSeepgoodz Nov 07 '24 edited Nov 07 '24
Yeah that would be have to go the way of NATO as i'm sure as anything in life trump isnt gonna sign a defense treaty with them against Putin. He will hang the ukrainians out to dry and be picked off by Russian forces. If they join NATO Putin will use that as excuse to start invading other countries claiming the rest of world is consolidating against him and his asset here in America will allow him to do so.
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u/frenchsmell Nov 07 '24
He has no options left. He more or less annexed Belarus, Georgia is a vassal, the rest are NATO countries. Kazakhstan and Mongolia are safe because China wants them independent. The whole Putin will go a conquering logic is ridiculous on several levels. Ukraine is a very specific case and getting the Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea will satiate Putin; next dictator, maybe not.
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u/EL_Hampa_Serio Nov 07 '24
Who cares lol honestly that’s a them problem we gave ya enough…
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u/SpinningHead Nov 07 '24
Yeah, when has a dictator swallowing European nations ever caused us trouble?
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u/Black_September Nov 07 '24
never?
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u/SpinningHead Nov 07 '24
^ The grasp on history right wingers have.
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u/mikkireddit Nov 08 '24
It seems like you don't even have a grasp on who ir what right wingers are.
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u/NovaKaizr Nov 07 '24
So Ukraine has now been forced into the position the will either have to make great sacrifices to the dictator, or lose everything.
Watch as Putin denies their attempts at peace talks because he knows he won this election. He doesn't have to accept peace talks, he can just tell Trump to disrupt all support to Ukraine, and as their lines crumble Putin can take everything.
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u/GetOutOfTheWhey Nov 07 '24
that would likely be a possibility. But I think it would be a little different.
Instead of focusing on Ukraine. Putin would likely try to tackle the sanctions, try to get those removed and reestablish gas lines.
Feel free to challenge me since this is just a conversation. But imo to Putin, he doesnt need more Ukrainian land. More land means more space you have to spend resources to protect. What he need is less NATO and more influence back in Europe. For that to happen, gas and natural resources is the easiest solution. Not to mention by resuming trade and lifting sanctions, it's the greatest punch in the gut to the EU if he makes peace contingent on lifting of sanctions.
Especially now when the EU is going through a moral crisis where they are trying to mental gymnastic themselves out of sanctioning Israel even though Israel has exterminated more kids in one year than the Ukrainian war has.
I dont think he will opt for more land but eradication of sanction and resumption of trade. It promotes the peace rhetoric and everyone who challenges it will be made to look like warmonger.
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u/NovaKaizr Nov 07 '24
You still buy the NATO crap? He wants the land. He wants the oil and gas resources, and he want Russia to be the breadbasket of Europe, not Ukraine.
NATO, protecting national security, stopping Ukrainian oppression of ethnic russians, all excuses. It is the same reason the US didn't talk about going into Iraq to get oil. It was about WMDs, stopping the "axis of evil" and bringing democracy to the people. All bullshit of course, same as with Russia. Nations care about two things, resources or power. About taking shit or making people follow your orders.
Putin either wants Ukraine's resources, or Ukraine itself as a puppet/province. Probably both.
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u/GetOutOfTheWhey Nov 07 '24
I disagree, Ukraine doesnt have much resources compared to Russia. Russia would be running a loss if they continued the war just to get more resources.
Besides with sanctions to whom would he sell these extra resources to? That is the single major flaw in your argument.
Think about it, right now he is barely selling the gas that he produced and he had to downscale production as well, we cant see their production numbers but we know their export numbers. They have halved. So tell me, what is Putin going to do with all that extra Ukranian gas fields when he cannot even sell the gas that he now has? Is he going to lower the price of gas even more?
Now some have argued that Russia might have increased productions but are storing their excess gas in underground storage caverns for the moment.
The other flaw was that Russia was already the breadbasket of the world
RU: 82 million tonnes of wheat in 2019
UA: 28 million tonnes of wheat in 2019
Source: US Government
We can also talk about mineral and hydrocarbons too but it's the same, Russia out produced Ukraine by multiples in all areas.
Putin doesnt need resources, he wont live that long. What he needs is to liquidate the resources that he does have right now and prevent his people coup'ing him. For that he needs to keep them busy with a better economy.
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u/NovaKaizr Nov 07 '24
Russia would be running a loss if they continued the war just to get more resources.
Short term yes, long term no. Also, sunk cost phallacy, they have already sacrificed so much they might as well continue til they win
Besides with sanctions to whom would he sell these extra resources to? That is the single major flaw in your argument.
If he takes Ukraine he might force Europe to trade. If not there is China and the rest of the world.
RU: 82 million tonnes of wheat in 2019
UA: 28 million tonnes of wheat in 2019
Yeah, and in 2025 it might be RU: 110 million tonnes of wheat. Don't underestimate the value of controlling the entire market.
We can also talk about mineral and hydrocarbons too but it's the same, Russia out produced Ukraine by multiples in all areas.
Again, controlling a bigger percent of the market means more of a say in the price.
Putin doesnt need resources, he wont live that long.
Why do millionaires and billionaires spend their lives gathering more money than they can spend in their entire lives? Why are the richest people on earth still trying to get richer? Because the wealth is not the point. The point is getting it. The fun of the game.
Why else do you think Putin is doing this? He clearly doesn't care about the people, he is perfectly willing to send hundreds of thousands to their deaths for slivers of land. He could also easily retire today and live the rest of his life in luxury. No, this is a game, and he likes playing it. He likes how it feels when he "wins"
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u/Pudgelover69 Nov 07 '24
I can assure you, Putin and Russia take no joy from this conflict and you clearly don’t understand history if you think they look at this as some “game” they have to win or you compare them to some dumb fuckn billionaires. What a dumb western mindset to think war is a “game” and prescribe that ridiculous thought onto a culture that have truly lost in this “game” you’re spouting about
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u/NovaKaizr Nov 07 '24
What is Putin's motivation? Why does he give a shit about any of this?
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u/GetOutOfTheWhey Nov 07 '24
Who would Putin sell all that extra gas to?
He has the gas right now. They are not buying.
Refuting your argument, China and rest of the world has not been able to absorb all the extra gas he has right now. Who will he sell all that extra Ukrainian gas to?
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u/mikkireddit Nov 08 '24
Europe is already buying the Russian gas at exorbitant rates through an intermediary. They are frothing to be able to buy direct from Russia again because their economies are collapsing and so are their governments. I predict they'll be buying direct from Russia by Christmas.
1
u/GetOutOfTheWhey Nov 08 '24
Yeah they definitely want more gas.
Christmas is a little soon as Trump wont become president then and I doubt Biden's last action as a president will be to lift the sanctions he placed on Russia. He already shamed himself by licking Mileikowsky's nutsack sparkling clean. I dont think he is willing to go further down into history as the most pathetic president.
But early next year is definitely a possibility if Trump is planning to speed run this thing.
3
u/speakhyroglyphically Nov 07 '24
He wants the oil and gas resources
Russia already has the worlds largest untapped gas resources. The talking point of "Putin" wanting to take over Europe was always just propaganda. Actually projection IMO
0
u/NovaKaizr Nov 07 '24
Yeah, and the US is the biggest producers of oil, so the idea they want control over oil production in the middle east is just propaganda
-1
-1
u/Cautious_Ad_6486 Nov 07 '24
I don't really believe this. The fact that there is a video from TRT makes me doubt this further
-3
u/hydropottimus Nov 07 '24
Trump will call this a victory. "I told you I'd end the war"
2
u/speakhyroglyphically Nov 08 '24
I dont care about Trump and tired of people trying to associate anyone in favor of a negotiated settlement with him. The war isn't and was never about Trump
•
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