r/F1Technical • u/Prodigal_son_911 • Aug 31 '22
Question/Discussion Scenarios in which LEC can steal WDC from VER? Question.
What series of events would need to take place over the remaining races (i.e. LEC pole + 1st place & VER 9th or above).
I believe these are posted somewhere online, please share here if you have located
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Aug 31 '22
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u/vgu1990 Sep 01 '22
This should be plan xxx.
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u/XsStreamMonsterX Sep 01 '22
That would be finally getting him to sleep with Kelly and he spends so much time fucking it ruins his performance.
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u/FrdrikZoller Sep 01 '22
Problem is, for years now, VER is the only one to be able to drive the Red Bull at the pace he does.
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Aug 31 '22
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u/jfleury440 Aug 31 '22
TM
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u/No_Double4762 Sep 01 '22
This is like a sign on a store entrance door in Italy: "I'll be back in 10', if I'm not here read the sign again".
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u/Uffffffffffff8372738 Aug 31 '22
Max would need to DNF multiple times to make this possible. He will probably get the WDC after Japan, almost definitely after COTA. In order to not get it after COTA, he would need to lose 2 points per race.
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u/MittonMan Sep 01 '22
Totally out of the loop on this one, what/where is COTA?
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Sep 01 '22
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u/MittonMan Sep 01 '22
Thanks! Thought it was USA, (since talks were about Japan and USA is after that) just had no idea what COTA might be referring to.
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u/Remy-today Sep 01 '22
F1 Jargon is always a bit hard to understand at first because most races go by country name, some by city or region and then most of them are also described with other names or their circuit names.
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u/agnaddthddude Sep 01 '22
Formula 1 Emirates Gran Premio dell'Emilia Romagna 2020 enters the chat
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u/jesuswasbasic Sep 02 '22
They mainly just go with the easiest way to remember it, think of a country has multiple tracks that hold a race (whether it be past or present) it’s easier to go by the track name. But if it only has one track raced at they go by the country
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u/Gyratetojackjarvis Aug 31 '22
Maybe max getting covid and missing a few races (not sure if self isolation is still a thing worldwide), combined with a few DNFs.
Last chance saloon would be red bull exceeding the budget cap and being excluded or docked points from the championship.
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u/swingbop Sep 01 '22
No way they would penalise Max with points if Red Bull exceeded the budget cap though, that would be a Constructors Championship thing.
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u/Benlop Sep 01 '22
They wouldn't exclude the penalize the team from a championship but still allow a driver to win with a car made outside of cost cap, that would not make any sense.
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u/PeepsInThyChilliPot Sep 01 '22
what about 2007 Mclaren, they had an illegal car in that they copied stuff from Ferrari but the drivers were allowed to fight for the WDC (Although there is a theory that the FIA forced Mclaren to stop their drivers from winning the WDC, resulting in Lewis's terrible strategy in China and gearbox issues in Interlagos)
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u/jesuswasbasic Sep 02 '22
If I remember correctly I think they lost that because of the alonso pit Lane incident where he intentionally stayed in the pits long enough to stop Lewis from qualifying. Read a book by one of the mclaren mechanics (great read, would recommend) and as punishment for that both drivers weren’t allowed to get points for one race so that stopped Lewis from winning
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u/Sm0g3R Aug 31 '22 edited Aug 31 '22
FIA banning something Red Bull relies on to make their cars fast. And then Mercedes dropping the ball too and coming back to their Bahrain levels of race pace. Only then you could talk about that. As it stands Ferrari dropped the ball so fucking hard they ended up behind Mercedes on race day (the only day of the weekend when it truly matters). All show, but no go and no results.
Realistically though, there's no such scenario as much as I would like that to happen.
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u/SplyBox Sep 01 '22
FIA bans Red Bull's whole engine, just for no reason, Honda need to redesign a whole new engine design in like a week.
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u/FlyingCircus18 Sep 01 '22
That wouldn't even stop them at Zandvoort, RB is the team that makes the impossible look like child's play
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u/Upset-Key-8553 Sep 01 '22
Honda engines are nuts and Adrian newey is literally OP now that there is no Ross brawn to fight him.
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u/jesuswasbasic Sep 02 '22
I always think this then I just remember the w11, I don’t think I can count Mercedes out next year as they are coming to grips with the car. And another close red bull merc battle would be amazing
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u/Upset-Key-8553 Sep 23 '22
Difference is, the Merc's advantage was its engine (barely average this time with E10), and Newey's work is mostly aerodynamic. Also, Mercedes cannot work with a longer car to make up for the less optimal aero because the regulations aim for a shorter car.
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u/GhostFlower11 Aug 31 '22
What did FIA ban that was bad for redbull?
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u/CGNYC Aug 31 '22
That’s what it would take, that hasn’t happened. It’s a hypothetical to answer the question
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u/cjo20 Aug 31 '22
They're saying that's the scenario where Charles can realistically win the championship.
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u/GhostFlower11 Aug 31 '22
Oh, sorry I thought they banned something recently
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Aug 31 '22
Well they cracked down on flexi-floors recently, which was tipped to slow the frontrunners down, but from Verstappen's dominance in Belgium I don't think it worked out that way.
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u/daniec1610 Aug 31 '22
Verstappen would need to not score points in the next 4 races and assuming Leclerc wins the same 4 races (without fastest lap), he would be leading the championship by like 2 points.
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Sep 01 '22
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u/koos_die_doos Sep 01 '22
and assuming Leclerc wins the same 4 races
Well yes, that’s the assuming part of Leclerc winning.
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u/dave_a86 Aug 31 '22
Lots of DNF’s. Particularly if they’re DNF’s that lead to engine penalties, like engine failures or crashes that wreck an engine.
Pretty unlikely though. Other than the issues in Bahrain and Australia (which didn’t end up destroying engines) they’ve been very reliable. Also Max hasn’t been crashing so it’d take a big change in form.
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Sep 01 '22
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u/monjessenstein Sep 01 '22
Penalties could help, especially if it's somewhere where it's difficult to overtake (japan/singapore) and/or somewhere ferrari have good race day pace. Possible scenario would be pure hopium though.
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Aug 31 '22
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Sep 01 '22
Knowing Ferrari, Carlos would end up in the well and Charles slipping on the banana peel
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Aug 31 '22
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u/chrisbeebops Aug 31 '22
The alien abduction seems more likely.
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u/ginjaninja2185 Sep 01 '22
Yeah, it does feel far more likely than Charles winning the championship.
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u/----Ant---- Aug 31 '22
FIA award the winner of Monza with ten times the points (like the double point Abu Dhabi race but bigger and better) and then both Red Bulls are disqualified for a technical infringement.
Ferrari would also need to fire the saboteur prior to the race and the alarm clocks in the Mercedes motorhomes are set to the wrong time zone.
Then all Leclerc would have to do is beat Norris and keep the rest of the season tidy.
And this is coming from someone that thinks the sport is better when champions change each year.
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u/zubchowski Aug 31 '22
I don't like this one, but Max being sidelined for the remainder of the season either through injury or sickness. Hope it doesn't happen. That's no way to win a championship.
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u/BakedOnions Sep 01 '22
For Charles to win Max needs to go on a backpacking trip through the Himalayas for the remainder of the season AND ferrari would need to find a way to actually win races
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Sep 01 '22
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u/kafloepie Sep 01 '22
Say the RB car is found illegal, with the precedents set in previous years FIA won’t retroactively punish them. So Max may lose points in by being disqualified in the next race, and after may score less points with an altered car. The changes would have to be big enough to get Max back into the midfield otherwise the points difference isn’t large enough to close the gap. On top of that Ferrari will have to put everything on maximizing Leclercs points over Sainz (which that haven’t really done so far this season) and consistently beat Mercedes as well. Russell wasn’t far off catching Sainz last race, and without his mistake Hamilton would have definitely been in the mix.
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Aug 31 '22
Only if Verstappen break his leg or hand
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u/Engineerkb70 Sep 01 '22
500 points to the winner of the Abu Dhabi GP
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u/blackbasset Sep 01 '22
Still this scenario is imagineable:
Last lap, Charles is leading with a two second gap to Max
Ferrari: "Charles, boxboxbox. We are going for fastest lap"
Charles: "Uh... guys, I don't think we should..."
Ferrari: "Boxboxbox"
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u/Captainfunzis Aug 31 '22
You have to factor in checo too he is now Max's main rival in the championship now lecerc is 3rd but i think max needs yo jusy finish races still 200 points not including fastest lap still up for grabs.
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u/SituationTall647 Aug 31 '22
Even though he’s #2 in the standings, I don’t think Checo can be relevant as a contender. No way he’s going to outperform Max, so the only way Max loses it is if RB starts dropping, in which case Leclerc is the only likely WDC
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u/Captainfunzis Aug 31 '22
Oh no way no how checo is winning WDC this year just pointing out that Max's closet rival championship wise just by the number of point is checo.
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u/TheEntropicMan Sep 01 '22
The FIA declaring “Having Max drive the car” an illegal modification.
Honestly at this point it’s so vanishingly unlikely that Ferrari needs to focus on not losing second to Mercedes rather than fighting for WDC.
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u/bing-bong-forever Aug 31 '22
None. Stop it. Ferrari might be losing second place to Merc so focus on that.
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u/JeeceRap Aug 31 '22
Perez is more likely to "challenge" Max at this point. But, anything can happen.
Interesing analysis.
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u/adultdaycare81 Sep 01 '22
Maybe if Max decided not to race and Ferrari took RBR’s pit crew and strategy team.
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u/FavaWire Sep 01 '22
98 point lead and something like only 8 rounds and about 211-ish points maximum available.
Leclerc would need to win 4 races and Max score nothing for 4 races to even come to terms.
Max can come second in every race from now on and Charles would have to win every single one and it would still result in Max becoming WDC with something like 2 races to go.
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u/EpicBeardMan Sep 01 '22
Max has a three way with Horner's wife and mother then gets replaced with Latifi.
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u/kanary15 Sep 01 '22
I was sketching it out roughly. Leclerc would have to outscore Max by an average of 12 or 13 points per race down the stretch. Meaning Leclerc would have to come in 1st and Max no better than 4th the rest of the season if you wanted to rely on no Max retirements. But it gets exceedingly more.luck focused when you consider that Monza and Suzuka are likely going to favor RBR's race pace. Then you have the toss ups of Zanvoort and COTA where Ferrari on paper should have a slight advantage with their downforce packages but by no means does that make Max worse than 4th unless it's a DNF.
tl:dr Max likely wins the WDC by Japan or the US barring catastrophe
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u/Hugsy13 Sep 01 '22
If Verstappen gets covid and misses 2 races, and DNFs or finishes out of the points twice.
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Sep 01 '22
If max scores 12.25 points less than Charles every round for yhe remaining races Charles will tie for the championship.
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u/geniusandy87 Sep 01 '22
That is just not possible now.
As FERRARI days , they always want to win next year. So we'll all be waiting for next year every year.
And VER 9th? He was 2s per lap faster without even trying so don't worry about it
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u/fireman-103 Sep 01 '22
Every person that is clowning around now with the ferrari strategy needs to find a new job.
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u/123abc890xyz Sep 01 '22
Max p1 in Zandvoort and Monza and both fastest lap.. dnf both for Lec… WDC in Italy almost 😅
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u/Z4urus Sep 01 '22
Even if Max starts DNF'ing every weekend, Checo would still have better chances to win than Leclerc
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u/Richard7481 Sep 01 '22
The most obvious answer is if Max has an accident that puts him out for the rest of the season. Schumacher suffered a similar fate in 1999.
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Sep 01 '22
I haven’t done the maths but I saw a post pre spa that if max had 2 DNFs and didn’t finish higher than 2nd for the rest of the season, and leclerc won with fastest lap for every race and the remaining sprint he would still win. Idk about past spa though.
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u/AntonioMarghareti Sep 01 '22
If Leclerc wins all remaining races with fastest lap and Verstappen DNF’s 3 times and comes in 2nd in all remaining races, Leclerc will win by a couple of points... I think. My math might be a bit off.
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u/Altruistic-Optimist Sep 01 '22
Even If VER takes 9th or above, will ferrari be that consistent and not mess up the strategy to give LEC a consistent pole + P1 ? Question.
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